Early result trends from the Maldives’ parliamentary elections indicate a strong lead for President Mohamed Muizzu‘s ruling People’s National Congress (PNC) over the opposition, including the India-friendly Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP).
Election OverviewThe elections, held recently, saw about 2,84,000 eligible voters participating to elect 93 members of the Maldivian parliament, known as Majlis, for a five-year term. This election is a critical test for Muizzu’s plans to enhance economic ties with China, potentially diverging from the nation’s traditional ally, India.Current Status
The PNC has secured 50 out of the 93 seats in the 20th People’s Majlis, ensuring a majority in the upcoming parliament. This majority is achieved with half the seats, while a super majority can be reached with three-fourths of the seats, amounting to 70.

Implications for Muizzu’s Policies
Muizzu, who is 45 years old, has been actively pursuing closer economic cooperation with China. His administration recently awarded high-profile infrastructure contracts to Chinese state-owned companies. Additionally, Muizzu’s government is in the process of sending home 89 Indian troops who operate reconnaissance aircraft gifted by India, a move that has strained relations with New Delhi.

“Geopolitics is very much in the background as parties campaign for votes in Sunday’s election,” a senior aide of Muizzu told AFP, asking not to be named. “He came to power on a promise to send back Indian troops and he is working on it. The parliament has not been cooperating with him since he came to power.”

The outcome of the parliamentary elections is likely to give Muizzu more freedom to pursue his pro-China policies, potentially impacting India’s security interests in the region. Despite these developments, Muizzu has acknowledged India’s financial support and expressed that India will remain the Maldives’ closest ally.

India Out Campaign
During his election campaign, Muizzu focused on the theme “India out,” criticizing his predecessor for allegedly giving India too much influence. This strained relations, leading to a boycott campaign of Maldives tourism by Indian social media activists. As a result, the number of Indian tourists visiting the Maldives has declined.

Despite these tensions, Muizzu visited China earlier this year and negotiated an increase in the number of tourists and inbound flights from China. Last month, he appeared to extend an olive branch, acknowledging India’s financial support to Male and stating that “India will continue to remain the Maldives’ closest ally.”

India has adopted a restrained approach and downplayed the strained ties. External Affairs Minister Dr S Jaishankar emphasized the importance of neighborly relations, stating, “History and geography are very powerful forces. There is no escape from that.”

Beijing has also been closely watching the Maldives election, as it has significantly increased aid to the country and inked several pacts for infrastructure projects after Muizzu came to power. This election is seen against the backdrop of China’s Indian Ocean push and Male’s strategic significance.

Recent Developments
Despite these tensions, Muizzu has acknowledged India’s financial support and expressed that India will remain the Maldives’ closest ally. However, his administration has been actively seeking to strengthen ties with China, which has significantly increased aid and infrastructure projects in the Maldives.

The outcome of the parliamentary elections in the Maldives is expected to have significant implications for the nation’s foreign policy, particularly in its relations with India and China. Muizzu’s victory is likely to lead to a closer alignment with China, potentially impacting the strategic balance in the Indian Ocean region.

(With inputs from Agencies)